Can Everton Realistically Qualify for the Champions League this Season?
The historic Everton F.C. spent the past half a decade scraping survival in the Premier League, while simultaneously vying for the title of one of the worst run clubs in world football. Now with new owners in the Friedkin Group, a shiny new world-class stadium in The Hill Dickinson and a revitalised team in hot form, the Toffees look like a team on the up. But can they qualify for next season's elite level European competition of the Champions League?
Everton currently sit in 8th place in the Premier League table. Level on points with Brentford and within three points of Liverpool in 5th and Chelsea in 6th, the Toffees are absolutely chasing the pack as one of the best of the rest going into the end of the season. However, with Aston Villa sitting relatively comfortably in 4th at 54 points, can they be caught?
The Current Table and the Maths of Qualification
The short answer is that Everton do have a chance. But, despite decent form in recent weeks, those chances have slimmed.
With seven games left to play, they have eight points to catch up on Aston Villa in 4th place. It is a possibility the EPL could have five CL spots next year but doubtful at this stage.
To catch up eight points in seven games, they would need at least five wins, probably six or seven, with results elsewhere going their way. Typical Champions League qualification points is 65+, and that looks about right this year. Which means Everton need 19 points from seven games. Doable, but very tough.
That is reflected in their average odds of a top 4 finish being around 50/1 to 100/1 at most sportsbooks.
For players interested in this kind of predictive maths, football betting sites are a useful place to check out what the market thinks - and maybe put your prediction to the test. Football is hugely popular, so top betting sites will offer lots of betting options and competitive odds on teams like Everton. As well as loads of other football markets, bonus offers and regular rewards.
Relegation Fears to Revival Form for the Toffees
So how have Everton turned turned around their season after languishing near the bottom of the league for several years? Even before that, the Toffees haven't been in serious contention for the Champions League places this far into the season since the early 2000s.
New ownership, a new stadium, the return of manager David Moyes and some top transfer deals in the past two seasons have really turned Everton's fortunes around.
Although 13-7-11 is far from title winning form, top mid table chasing points at this stage is a blessed relief for Everton fans. They have seen their team survive relegation by the tips of goalkeeper Jordan Pickford's fingertips more than once in recent years, twice leaving it to the final day of the season to seal their Premier League position.
But The Toffees did survive, retaining their status as one of one two Premier League teams (alongside Arsenal) who have never been relegated from the top flight. And this season, they're back with somewhat of a vengeance.
Who Have Been the Key Drivers of their Improvement?
Everton's 2025/26 resurgence has been built on defensive stability. The team has conceded just 35 goals which is the third best defensive record in the league, and they have kept 11 clean sheets (35% of games).
That is all despite continually playing giant natural centre back Jake O'Brien out of position at right back, and having the highly rated centre half Jared Branthwaite out injured for most of the season.
Pickford has continued to prove this season why he is England's number one and statistically one of the best goalkeepers in the PL - as well as passing the eye test with back-to-back Save of the Month award wins. Michael Keane has also seen revitalised form partnering in defence with the ever reliable shot-blocking wall that is James Tarkowski.
In midfield, world-class Gana Gueye still proves he has the legs for the Premier League at 36 (after winning, and then not winning, the AFCON no less). Meanwhile James Garner has quietly racked up some of the best midfield stats in the league this season, and has recently been recognised with his first senior England call up. New signing Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has also been a revelation, looking much-improved on the inconsistent form that saw him fail to nail down a starting place at Chelsea. And that's all without mentioning the mercurial Jack Grealish. The silky attacker was very influential in the early season after arriving on loan from Manchester City, before being side lined with injury until next year.
Astute fans might notice not much mention of attacking prowess here. Everton have consistently been relatively low scoring this season, grinding out close games at 1-0 relatively often. Strikers Beto and Thierno Barry have both improved as the season goes on but neither have set the world alight.
If Everton are to hit the Champions League places they can only realistically drop three or four points from the next seven games. With both a home Merseyside Derby coming up and an away game at title chasing City, it looks difficult. But if the strikers can get firing - with Beto recently hitting a double in an impressive 3-0 home win over Chelsea - who knows how high the Toffees can fly this season?
- Everton FC