Predicting the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage
With the playoffs now complete, the Group Stage for the 2026 FIFA World Cup is set. Already, it will be unlike anything we’ve seen before, with games taking place across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. What’s more, this will be the first tournament of the new expanded format, with the number of participants climbing from 32 to 48 teams.
The World Cup is around the corner, and fans from every participating nation are beginning to dream of glory, whether they will openly admit it or not. As I’m not brave enough to predict how the entire tournament will play out, I’ve decided to try something safer and predict who I think will qualify for the knockout rounds.
2026 World Cup Format Explained
Before I go any further, it’s important to understand how this new structure looks in practice.
There are 48 teams split into Groups of four, making 12 Groups in total. Of these, the top two teams from each Group will automatically qualify for the knockout phase of the competition. They will also be joined by the eight best third-placed teams to bring the total to 32 teams in the knockouts.
This means that there will be a Round of 32, as opposed to previous tournaments where the knockouts started at the Round of 16.
I should also mention here that there are too many variables to predict who the eight best third-placed teams will be. So for the purpose of simplicity, this article will focus on the 24 guaranteed knockout spots that will be occupied by the nations that finish inside the top two of their respective Groups.
Predictions for Each Group
As the final international games before the World Cup have been played, the FIFA World Rankings listed below are accurate at the time of writing.
Group A
Group A consists of hosts Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, and the Czech Republic. Of these, Mexico are the highest-ranked team, sitting at 15th in FIFA’s Ranking system, while South Africa are predictably the lowest at 60th.
Given that Mexico have the best record out of the teams listed here, it’s a fairly safe bet that they’ll qualify again here. They’ve made it to the Group Stage in each of the last three World Cups, and qualified for the knockouts in both 2014 and 2018. Plus, we all know that their goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa is going to turn up and make a name for himself as he always does on this stage.
Likewise, it’s highly likely that South Africa will finish bottom of the Group. Given who they’re up against, I’d be surprised if they managed to get even two points. Outside of hosting the tournament in 2010, the last time they managed to qualify before 2026 was way back in 2002.
The Czechs have also failed to make the last three World Cups, but at least their last appearance was slightly more recent, coming in 2006 when the tournament was hosted in Germany.
Finally, South Korea have made it to the Group Stages of the last three tournaments, but only one of those saw them progress into the knockout rounds, although that came at the most recent edition in 2022.
Top Two Prediction
1. Mexico
2. South Korea
Group B
Group B consists of one of the other hosts in Canada, as well as Bosnia-Herzegovina, Qatar, and Switzerland.Already I can quite comfortably predict that the Swiss will top this group. They’ve made the last 16 in each of the last three tournaments, and also sit in a very respectable 19th in the FIFA Rankings. There’s no two ways around it, this group looks weak, so if Switzerland go out it will be a major shock.
At the opposite end of the scale, I can quite comfortably say that Qatar won’t make the knockouts. Chances are the other three nations will see them as an easy three points. Prior to qualifying as host nation, Qatar had never even qualified for the FIFA World Cup, and the tournament’s expanded size is probably the only reason they’re here now.
Canada obviously got an automatic spot as hosts, but their record at this tournament isn’t great to say the least. They’ve only qualified for two World Cups on merit, and prior to 2022 their last appearance was back in 1986. What’s more, they didn’t even get out of the Group Stage on either occasion, so it’s a safe bet that they’ll be joining Qatar in being eliminated unless they can somehow end up as one of the eight best third-placed sides.
Bosnia don’t exactly have a stellar Group Stage record either, with only one win across the last three tournaments, and that was back in 2014. That said, they’ve earned their place here by knocking out Italy on penalties. As they’ve proven they can punch well above their weight on occasion, I’m backing them to cause an upset and edge out the Canadians to claim that second qualification spot.
Top Two Prediction
1. Switzerland
2. Bosnia
Group C
Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, and debutants Haiti make up Group C, and right from the outset it would take a very brave man to back anyone other than Brazil to finish top of the pile. They’ve won the competition a staggering five times, and while they may not be as strong as they were in their prime, their international squad still puts most of the rest of the world to shame.
Again, I can quite comfortably say that Haiti will be an easy three points for the other sides. They’ve never played on this stage before, and they aren’t exactly known for their footballing prowess.
Of the other two sides, the gulf in quality is stark, with Scotland ranking at 43rd and Morocco in 8th. This is also the Tartan Army’s first World Cup in 28 years, and they’ve never made it out of the Group Stage of either the Euros or the World Cup.
Morocco, on the other hand, made it all the way to the semi-finals in 2022, and have a range of excellent players to call upon including the likes of Achraf Hakimi, Brahim Díaz, and Hakim Ziyech.
Top Two Prediction
1. Brazil
2. Morocco
Group D
The USA, Paraguay, Australia, and Turkey make up Group D, and it’s safe to say that none of the countries here have exactly covered themselves in glory.
Turkey and Paraguay didn’t even manage to qualify for any of the last three World Cups, while the USA managed to reach the Round of 16 in 2022 and 2014, but didn’t manage to qualify in 2018.
Believe it or not, the Aussies are the most consistent nation here, having qualified for all of the last three tournaments, although the 2022 edition was the only one of these three when they managed to reach the knockouts.
Given their previous track records, I would expect Paraguay and Turkey to miss out on automatic qualification. The USA’s record isn’t great, but they’ll have home advantage on their side, and the lion’s share of games this World Cup will be played on US soil as well.
For their part, I expect Australia to join the USA in making it through, given the gulf in quality between themselves and Paraguay and Turkey. The battle for top spot will be close, but I would expect the Americans to edge it.
Top Two Prediction
1. USA
2. Australia
Group E
Group E sees the first of the four debutants at this World Cup in Curacao, who are also the smallest nation to have ever qualified. Their population is around just 156,000, which is even smaller than Iceland! They’re joined by Germany, the Ivory Coast, and Ecuador, so they’ll have to cause a string of major upsets if they have any hope of making the knockouts.
I love an underdog story, but that feels like far too big of an ask. Even if they manage to take points off of any of the other three nations, it will be one of the talking points of the entire tournament.
Despite having some solid players in their ranks, the Ivory Coast have really underperformed recently, especially for a country that is supposed to be one of Africa’s bigger hitters. The Elephants went out in the Group Stage in Brazil in 2014, and didn’t even manage to qualify for Russia and Qatar.
Ecuador also missed out on Russia 2018, but at least they made the Group Stage in 2014 and 2022, albeit they fell at the first hurdle both times.
On paper, you would expect a footballing powerhouse like Germany to sweep a Group like this aside, but for a country that’s won four World Cups, they’ve really let themselves down. They may have stormed to glory in 2014 to win their first World title as a unified nation, but they’ve failed to even make it to the knockouts since then, even with the supremely talented squad at their disposal.
Given what they’re up against here, though, I would be shocked if they didn’t win their group, and although the fight for second may be tight, I would expect the Ivory Coast to claim the other qualifying spot.
Top Two Prediction
1. Germany
2. Ivory Coast
Group F
Of the numerous Groups, this one looks to be one of the most unpredictable.
Given that Tunisia didn’t even make it out of the Group Stage in the last two tournaments, I would expect them to finish rock bottom of the pile. However, although the Netherlands have a very strong side and are most likely among many people’s favourites to win the tournament, Japan and Sweden both have the potential to cause a major upset.
The Japanese deservedly ran out winners last time out against England, and Sweden will be able to call on the in-form Viktor Gyökeres, who fired them to the World Cup with a hat-trick against Ukraine and a last-minute winning goal in their 3-2 win against Poland which saw them book their ticket to North America.
The Orange Army might not have made it to Russia in 2018, but they bounced back to secure a top 8 finish in Qatar, and it’s a safe bet that they’ll make it out of the Group here as well.
That vital second place is too tight to call, but if I had to pick, I would have to say Sweden slightly edges out Japan. Yet, I wouldn’t be surprised if whoever finishes third here takes one of those life-saving best third-placed team qualification places.
Top Two Prediction
1. Netherlands
2. Sweden
Group G
While some Groups look like they could cause an upset, I’d be very shocked if this one panned out any other way than a final top two of Belgium and Egypt, in that order.
Belgium might not have their golden generation any more, but they still have comfortably the strongest squad in this Group.
Egypt easily come second. While Mo Salah might be nearing the end of his career, and has called time on his days as a Liverpool player, he still easily has the ability to show up for his country when needed.
I’m not even counting Iran and New Zealand as viable competitors here. Iran haven’t made it out of the Group Stage in any of the last three tournaments, while New Zealand haven’t even qualified in that time.
Top Two Prediction
1. Belgium
2. Egypt
Group H
Like Group G, I’m not expecting any surprises here. Spain are easily one of the favourites to win the tournament, and the gulf in quality between themselves and the other three sides is too big to see anything other than a top spot finish for Spain.
The prolific Luis Suárez may not be with the Uruguay squad anymore, but if they aren’t able to beat Saudi Arabia and debutants Cape Verde to that second spot, Marcelo Bielsa will have no defence.
Top Two Prediction 1. Spain
2. Uruguay
Group I
With France, Senegal, and Norway to contend with, it’s hard to see any other outcome for Iran than finishing last.
Plus, given that France has one of the best squads in the world and are number one in FIFA’s rankings, they are many bettors’ favourites to win the tournament. They’ve given a very strong showing of themselves in all of the last three tournaments, making the quarter- finals in 2014, finishing as runners-up in Qatar and winning the tournament outright in Russia 2018.
Senegal may have been officially stripped of their AFCON title, but many football fans will still regard them as the fair winners. What’s more, they are a well organised side that is very capable of punching above their weight. Their captain, Sadio Mané, might not be the player he was during his Liverpool days, but he’s still a major threat to the opposition. Crucially, they also have recent World Cup experience, having made the Group Stage in both 2018 and 2022.
For their part, Norway have the likes of Martin Ødegaard and the prolific Erling Haaland to call upon, so they definitely shouldn't be underestimated. That said, they haven’t even made it to any of the last three World Cups. As such, I would expect Senegal to beat them to that vital second place finish.
However, although Norway may not finish inside the automatic qualification places, they definitely look like a very strong contender to take one of the eight spots reserved for the best third-placed teams.
Top Two Prediction
1. France
2. Senegal
Group J
Jordan have made it to the World Cup for the first time, but given that they’re up against Argentina, Austria, and Algeria, it’s hard to see any other outcome than them finishing last in their Group.
At the opposite end of the scale, this Group is Argentina’s to lose. They’re the defending champions, are ranked third in the world, and are in fine form with five wins in a row.
There isn’t much to split Austria and Algeria in that fight for second. Both sides have three wins, one draw, and one defeat from their last five matches, but Austria are a well-disciplined side under Ralf Rangnick, and I expect this to be the difference-maker in the fight for that vital runner-up spot.
Top Two Prediction
1. Argentina
2. Austria
Group K
Group K contains the last of the four debutant nations in Uzbekistan, and as with Jordan I expect them to finish last.
DR Congo are the other nation I expect to be dumped out at the first hurdle, as they haven’t even qualified for the last three tournaments.
This group is Portugal’s to lose. It might be Cristiano Ronaldo’s last World Cup, but the fact that he’s still able to play for his country at 41 shows just how much of a phenomenal talent he is. Exactly how far Portugal will go is another matter entirely, but they’re pretty much nailed on to qualify for the knockouts here.
Colombia may have fallen off in recent years, but they made it out of the Group Stage in both 2014 and 2018, and given that their opposition for that second spot are DR Congo and Uzbekistan, serious questions have to be asked if they finish outside the top two.
Top Two Prediction
1. Portugal
2. Colombia
Group L
The final Group of this expanded tournament is comprised of England, Croatia, Ghana, and Panama.
The Three Lions may have won all eight of their qualifying games en route to the competition, but their opponents were decidedly poor, and they failed to win either of their friendlies in the last international break before the World Cup begins in June. Still, they should have the squad depth to be able to win this group, even if most viewers are expecting them to drop points along the way.
Panama may have improved in recent years, but they only qualified for one of the last three World Cups, where they didn’t even make it out of the Group Stage. As such, it looks likely that the fight for second place will be between Croatia and Ghana, although I believe the gulf in quality between them will ultimately see the European side join the Three Lions in the automatic qualification places.
Ghana may be a physical team, but they’ve lost four of their last five matches, while Croatia’s record is the opposite. There are 63 places between the two countries in FIFA’s rankings, so a second-placed finish looks to be a bridge too far for the Black Stars.
Top Two Prediction
1. England
2. Croatia
Final Thoughts
The new expanded format inevitably means that numerous lower-ranking nations have the chance to dream of glory where they previously struggled to qualify, or in some cases have never even made it this far.
Yet, while more teams also means more opportunities for upsets, in all likelihood the way the Groups have fallen for this year’s World Cup means the chances are that many of the big footballing nations will make the knockouts, whereas most of the minnows will be sent home.
With global tournaments like this driving huge engagement across different regions, fans are increasingly following not just results but also broader trends around the game. As interest continues to grow across emerging markets such as South Africa, you can explore broader insights into international football betting trends at Casinos.org.
However, football is never a truly predictable sport, and the World Cup has proven that time and time again. So, while the top two teams from each Group look fairly obvious now, we could easily see a large number of predictions turned on their head when the tournament gets underway in June.
Whatever happens, the World Cup always produces memorable stories, and I can’t wait to see how this year’s tournament unfolds.
World Cup 2026