Why Spain Tactical Reinvention Has Made Them the World Cup Favourites
Numbers often give an insight into what we can expect to see by the time the 2026 World Cup rolls around. With only a few weeks remaining ahead of the opening game kick off in Mexico City, Spain lies at the top of the World Cup odds in 2026.
Not many people would have thought that Spain as the clear favourite when the qualification campaign began, often favouring the likes of France, England and Brazil. Bookmakers generally are giving Spain an 18% chance of winning the trophy.
One of the key reasons why there’s so much interest in the team is due to the tactical reinvention under the leadership of Luis de la Fuente. The team no longer plays the tiki taka style that became so effective during the 2010s. That’s been replaced with a faster and more ruthless approach to the game that has been proving to be very effective.
4-3-3 That Doesn't Look Like a Classic 4-3-3
Spain still has a 4-3-3 formation on paper and De la Fuente has used a similar approach since he assumed the role as manager in late 2022. It’s what happens when the ball is in play that looks almost nothing like the expansive style of the recent Spanish sides.
The first thing that’s noticeable is the midfield area. Rodri remains as the main pivot, aided by Pedri and Zubimendi. Pedri usually goes forward more, occupying the space between the opposition’s defensive and midfield lines. Zubimendi is more defensive and helps create a narrow diamond that rotates based on whichever team Spain is facing.
This means that there are three midfielders who are in the same horizontal band and constantly moving with the ball sideways. The midfielders are now stacked vertically and look to break the lines with their progressive passing.
The full-backs, including Cucurella, will push high and narrow whenever the team is in possession, which turns them almost into midfielders. That means there’s plenty of space for the wingers to stay wide and isolate the opposition full-backs. The likes of Yamal and Nico Williams are given proper space to take on their man and create havoc.
The Press Is the Big Change
De la Fuente differs from his most recent predecessor in the way in which the team sets up defensively. Luis Enrique’s time in charge saw a low retreat when the ball was lost into a mid-block in a 4-1-4-1 formation. They preferred to concede territory and ensure that they were in proper shape.
However, whenever Spain loses the ball these days, they immediately pile players into the area where they were dispossessed and try to get it back inside of six seconds. Rodri acts as cover in case that attempt to quickly win the ball back is unsuccessful.
This counter pressing approach makes Spain a tough team to play against, as it can feel suffocating even when in possession. Even if a team gets out of the initial press, they will often be too close to be surrounded by Spanish players.
Spain’s stats from the 2024 Euros showed how it was the team that won the ball the most times in the attacking third, and recent friendlies show that this pattern is still in effect.
A Question of Squad Depth
One thing that could hold Spain back is potential injuries to key players. One of the most worrisome was the hamstring issue that impacted Yamal towards the end of April. That means De la Fuente faces a trade-off of playing him early and risking injury or giving him more of a rest and risk him being a bit rusty by the time the business end of the tournament begins. Public comments from the manager make it appear that they’ll be taking a cautious approach with the young Barcelona star.
Other injury concerns are a foot injury to Mikel Merino and a lingering knee problem for Fabian Ruiz, which impacts the overall depth in the midfield area. There is good backup in Pedro and Marco Llorente, but what lies behind them isn’t as strong as yesteryear. Spain needs to keep as many of the starters fit to go all the way, which isn’t helped by an extra game in the 2026 World Cup as it’s the first time 48 teams are taking part.
Where the Value Lies
Anyone who’s interested in betting on the World Cup and thinks that Spain will be the answer won’t get great odds for this wager, that’s why it’s worth looking at potential outsiders who can cause an upset, as there’s always a team that does so, such as Morocco at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, when they reached the semi-finals.
The value tends to lie a tier down from the main names. Sides like the Netherlands, Germany and Portugal are decent and they all have good squad depth and tactical nous of proper contenders. However, the reason for their longer prices is that their more recent form isn’t the best. However, a well-timed run could catch teams by surprise.
Portugal especially look a good price as Roberto Martinez has steadily built a strong system over the past couple of years that no longer leans on Cristiano Ronaldo. The midfield trio of Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, and Vitinha are full of smarts and skill to adapt in games as needed.
Japan and Morocco will also attract attention as dark horses, as they are good defensively and have a threat at set pieces and tactical discipline. Whether they can repeat their great performances from four years ago remains to be seen.
What it also shows is that teams that win the World Cup are the best at dealing with threats that opponents pose. Spain’s ability to quickly regain possession and maintain attacking threat makes them the favourites for the competition. However, the World Cup is always full of twists and turns, which is why so many people across the world will tune in to watch the action.
World Cup 2026 fixture