World Cup Last Four: Which Teams Look Best Placed to Reach the Semi-Finals?
Germany's dramatic penalty shootout defeat to Paraguay has done more than produce the World Cup's biggest upset so far. It has also brought the race for the semi-finals into much sharper focus. With one of the pre-tournament favourites gone, the path to the last four suddenly looks much easier to judge.
The knockout stage changes the conversation around every World Cup. One result can open up a side of the draw, another can send a favourite home, while outright prices are quick to reflect both. By the time the quarter-finals come into view, recent performances and potential opponents often carry just as much weight as pre-tournament reputation.
If you're assessing the remaining contenders, it also makes sense to compare the markets available. To that end, you can compare betting sites with welcome bonus offers that list welcome promotions, free bets, wagering terms and bookmaker ratings in one place. Oddspedia is an international sports betting and odds comparison platform covering bookmakers, betting markets, live scores and sporting events. It also lets you filter by betting options, payment methods and mobile app availability, which is useful when knockout prices are moving quickly and small differences between operators can change the value of a bet.
Current semi-final odds point towards four nations that have combined tactical quality, tournament experience and genuine star power. Here is why France, Argentina, Spain and England deserve to be regarded as the leading candidates to reach the last four.
France Have Become the Benchmark
France are deserved favourites to reach the semi-finals at 1/4 and it is difficult to argue with that assessment.
Didier Deschamps' side have looked complete from the opening match. They won all three group games before dismantling Sweden 3-0 in the Round of 32, producing their most convincing display yet. France registered 25 shots and 12 on target, while Kylian Mbappe continued his outstanding tournament with another two goals. Michael Olise has quietly become one of the competition's defining players, supplying five assists and dictating attacks between the lines.
Just as importantly, Deschamps has found the right balance in a fluid 4-2-3-1. Bradley Barcola, Ousmane Dembele and Olise constantly rotate around Mbappe without sacrificing defensive discipline. Few teams look capable of matching both their attacking speed and tactical organisation over 90 minutes.
Argentina Still Know How to Win Tournament Football
Argentina remain second favourites at 4/7 and the reigning champions have given little reason to doubt them.
Six group-stage goals underlined Lionel Messi's enduring influence before he led Argentina comfortably into the knockout rounds. Yet this side is no longer dependent on moments of individual brilliance alone.
Maximum points from the group stage reflected just how complete this team has looked. Lionel Scaloni's side rarely came under sustained pressure. Their passing remains patient without becoming predictable, while the defensive structure has quietly limited opponents to very few clear opportunities.
Tournament football often rewards know-how. Argentina understand exactly what is required to navigate knockout matches because much of this squad has already done it. That experience could prove invaluable once the margins become even tighter.
Spain's Control and England's Resilience Make Them Genuine Contenders
Spain are available at 11/8 to reach the semi-finals, with England just behind at 7/4, and both have compelling cases despite taking very different routes through the tournament.
Perhaps no side has been more technically complete than Spain. Their goalless draw against Cape Verde briefly raised questions, yet victories over Saudi Arabia and Uruguay reminded everyone why Luis de la Fuente's squad remains so highly regarded. Lamine Yamal continues to provide moments few defenders can anticipate, while Pedri dictates the rhythm in midfield with remarkable composure for someone still only 23.
The route has been less straightforward for England, although there may be value in that. Thomas Tuchel's side needed Harry Kane's late brace to overturn DR Congo in the Round of 32, showing resilience that previous England teams have occasionally lacked. Kane now has five tournament goals, while Jude Bellingham continues to influence matches even when space is limited. Equally encouraging has been Tuchel's reluctance to experiment unnecessarily with his lineup. Players understand their roles, England defend with greater clarity and the side appears more settled than it did during the opening months of his tenure.
They may not have dominated every match, but knockout football often rewards teams capable of finding solutions rather than perfection.
Also worthy of consideration are Brazil at 2/1. Carlo Ancelotti's side edged past Japan through Gabriel Martinelli's late winner and still possess enough attacking quality to challenge any team left in the tournament. Their route, however, looks slightly more demanding than the four sides above, which is why they narrowly miss this list.
With several genuine contenders still capable of lifting the trophy, World Cup 2026 odds are likely to keep evolving as the tournament progresses. Oddspedia updates outright prices alongside match odds, qualification markets and football statistics, allowing you to compare how leading bookmakers price every stage of the tournament. That makes it easier to follow how France, Argentina, Spain and England are valued as the race for football's biggest prize unfolds across North America.
Only One Team Can Conquer North America
Germany's exit has reminded everyone how quickly a World Cup can change. The gap between the favourites and the chasing pack is often measured by a single moment, whether it is a penalty save, a set piece or one flash of brilliance from a world-class player.
France have the most complete attack. Argentina still have the muscle memory of champions. Spain can suffocate opponents with control, while England have already shown they can drag themselves through danger when the match turns ugly.
Reaching the semi-finals would confirm their place among the tournament's elite. Winning the trophy in the Land of the Free, with the final waiting at MetLife Stadium on 19 July, will demand something even greater.
Whoever eventually conquers North America will have earned it against the deepest World Cup field the tournament has ever seen.
World Cup 2026 fixture