How substitutions affect game outcomes
source pixabay
Until quite recently, football teams could only make three substitutions, but this season’s EPL has introduced a five-substitutions rule. Subs can impact a game in all sorts of ways, both good and bad, and regardless of the team you support, we’re sure you could provide examples of both.
Today, we’re going to discuss some of the most impactful substitutes and super subs to have graced the game, and those that have cemented themselves in the history books as some of the worst.
Modern-day substitution format and how it changes the game
The concept of five subs instead of three is one of the most significant changes we’ve seen in English football for a long time. Obviously, Video Assistant Referee (VAR) technology probably grabs most of the limelight and has invariably changed the way the game is played, but five subs instead of three isn’t just an eye-catching headline. It has also transformed the way managers approach games and the bevvy of tactics they use. Knowing that they have a broader range of players to choose from on the bench opens a variety of strategies and potential plays!
However, it’s not just managers who have had to adapt. Betting markets are another area that has experienced a sharp adjustment. Gamblers can bet on hundreds of derivative football betting markets, and one of the most popular is the next player to score, which is a market impacted by this change.
Bettors can still place these bets, even if the chosen player starts on the bench. Betway Sports delves further into these markets. While you will get better odds for players on the bench, obviously because the chances are much thinner, managers are using more substitutions earlier on in the game if needed because they have more at their disposal.
The super sub concept
Substitutions have been used to change the trajectory of the game for over 100 years. Although some players might not be at a high enough standard to play for 90 minutes every week, there are highly capable players on the periphery who can prove their weight in gold when they come off the bench as impact subs.
Recent statistics from the EPL show that subs are having a greater impact on the game than ever before. However, this also highlights the difference between a good manager and a great manager. A great manager knows when they need to switch it up — regardless of the quality of the players they have out on the pitch.
There are only a few examples of players who stand out as a super sub because they fall into a unique bracket of being highly competent pros who are on the fringes of the top teams. Ole Gunnar Solskjær was one of Ferguson’s top signings in the 1990s and is still the only substitute in EPL history who scored four goals from the bench, an impressive feat!
Liverpool’s David Fairclough was another example of a player who could transform the game from the bench. Arguably, he was the player who brought the concept of the super sub into the mainstream of English football.
When it goes wrong
Just because a player is coming off the bench fresh and ready doesn’t mean that they’re always going to have a positive impact on the game. Recently, there have been some incredible examples of substitutions that have gone drastically wrong!
There is the notorious tale of Ali Dia — George Weah’s cousin — who managed to talk his way onto the Southampton team and off the bench. Thirty minutes later, Graeme Souness, the then manager, dragged the player off the pitch after proving that he wasn’t up to the speed of the English top flight.
Other negative examples include Chelsea bringing on all three of their subs against Newcastle and then having two players go off injured, and ending the game with nine men. Perhaps the most bizarre of all was a sub that didn’t even happen, with Kepa refusing to be subbed in the 2019 Carabao Cup Final and Chelsea going on to lose the game. So, substitutes don’t always go to plan and can potentially be an unexpected hindrance to the team. This can negatively change a team’s energy, which is not what you want mid-match.
Final thoughts
Bringing on fresh legs from the bench is always a gamble — they can win matches single-handedly, announce themselves as contenders for the first team or create an absolute disaster and put themselves on the transfer list.
It’s going to be fascinating to see how the new five-substitution rule change permeates the modern game. It’s already starting to have a big impact in the early part of this season, but as more teams adapt to the challenges and potential opportunities, substitutes could become more integral to the game than they’ve ever been!
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